Following the Pahalgam attack, India and Pakistan have suspended diplomatic measures, one of the key measures being the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, with reports stating that India is restricting the flow of water through key dams, such as the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River and the Kishanganga on the Neelum River, a tributary of Jhelum. But can India truly stop water from flowing to Pakistan?
India controls the headwaters of the Indus River system, which supplies critical water resources to Pakistan. However, a closer look at the region’s geography shows that the notion of completely cutting off water to Pakistan is far more complicated—and, in practical terms, nearly impossible.
The rivers in question—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—are large, snow-fed rivers that flow from the Himalayas into Pakistan.
While India does have dams on these rivers, such as the Baglihar Dam in Jammu and the Kishanganga Project in north Kashmir’s Gurez, these dams are not designed to block or store large quantities of water.
They are run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects, primarily intended to generate electricity rather than store or divert water for political leverage.
Though these dams have limited reservoir capacity, they allow India to temporarily regulate the timing of water releases for power generation. In practice, this means India can delay or reduce water flow for short periods—hours or days—not stop it entirely.
The geographical and engineering limitations of these projects prevent any long-term stoppage of flow. Simply put, these rivers are too powerful to control, and the dams too limited in capacity, to serve as tools for a prolonged blockade.
Even if the Indus Waters Treaty were formally suspended, water would still flow downstream due to gravity, geography, and natural snowmelt.
Moreover, without massive and currently non-existent infrastructure to store or divert these rivers, there is no feasible way to halt their flow without flooding upstream regions in India itself.
That said, the Kishanganga Dam offers a special case. A portion of the Kishanganga River (known as Neelum in Pakistan), which originally flowed westward into Pakistan-controlled Kashmir to join the Jhelum, has been diverted through a 23-kilometre tunnel into the Bonar-Madhumati stream in Bandipora, north Kashmir.
After generating electricity at the 330 MW hydroelectric project, the water is released into Wullar Lake, keeping it within Indian controlled territory and reducing the volume flowing downstream into Pakistan.
This project has also been a longstanding point of contention with Pakistan, which argues that it violates the spirit of the Indus Waters Treaty.
While the diversion is legal under certain conditions defined in the treaty, it remains an example of how India has used its upper-riparian advantage to alter water dynamics. Even here, however, the overall volume of water diverted is relatively limited.
While India can certainly use water as a tool of pressure—especially by delaying or regulating flow through existing dams—it cannot permanently stop the rivers from reaching Pakistan. At least not with the infrastructure currently in place.
Nature, geography and hydrology, all stand in the way of turning water into a weapon.
The conversation around the Indus Waters Treaty is significant, but any notion of a complete water cutoff is more symbolic than strategically or technically feasible.